Hurricane Ian
First Answer
Days before Ian made landfall I knew some idiot (or multiple idiots) would try to make this connection.
It’s true that warm sea surface temperatures provide fuel to strengthen hurricanes. And the SSTs in the gulf have been quite high. What many people don’t understand is that when a tropical system is over water, it pulls cooler water up from the depths (this is called upwelling) thereby cooling the SSTs and leaving less fuel for any later tropical systems crossing that path.
Because Ian was the first storm to enter the gulf this hurricane season, it had access to all the fuel available. Ironically Ian got so strong because the first half of the hurricane season was so quiet. Even with Ian, this year’s accumulated cyclone energy is below the 1991–2020 average by Sept 30, 78.0 vs 94.1.
So no, Ian does not have all the hallmarks of climate change.
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Second Answer
The Alarmists have been dying to shout climate change this hurricane season. For 2022 NOAA is forecasting a likely range of 14 to 21 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which 6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 3 to 6 major hurricanes (category 3, 4 or 5; with winds of 111 mph or higher). NOAA provides these ranges with a 70% confidence.
Ian is the first storm to touch the US in 2022, unfortunately for the believers weeks following the peak hurricane season. Ian may be the only hurricane this year well short of the predicted 6 - 10. This bears the hallmark of one of the weakest hurricane seasons in recent history. This didn't stop the left wing media from acting like this was the 11th decrying humans and fossil fuels at every opportunity.
Third Answer
It bears all the hallmarks of a hurricane that spent a lot of time in the Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico. The chain of islands and Florida traps and isolates the water from the Atlantic convection currents making the water markedly warmer. This added energy rapidly fuels tropical storms turning them into major hurricanes quickly. The path of this hurricane is a little unusual but the path is dependent on current weather patterns which slowed its progress and caused it to curl to the northeast instead of continuing northwest across the gulf to hit the panhandle or points farther west. If it had gone on a more westerly tract at the same speed, it would have been a severe category 5 when it made landfall.
This current hurricane season has had markedly fewer named storms than last year when they ran out of the alphabet for names.
Fourth Answer
Every year since 1999 here in Southwest Arizona we’ve had less and less rain. The entire Colorado River basin has been getting less and less rain as well. In real life the entire southwest of the United States is rapidly drying out. Lake Mead is currently down to year or two of having enough drinking water and farm irrigation water, much less enough water to run the generators. This IS climate change.
For the 23 years I’ve lived here I’ve kept track of the first and last day I had to run my air conditioner. While the track has been up and down the trend is to keep running the air longer. At this point it’s a week longer than it was in 1999. This is also climate change…shorter winters and longer summers.
If this was the case when the dinosaurs roamed this turn of event wouldn’t make a difference… except to the dinosaurs. But we’re not dinosaurs. I submit to you that 21st century civilization can’t continue without water. In a few years some of the millions of people who moved into the southwest deserts will be attempting to move elsewhere…where would that be?
We see this trend in other drought afflicted areas such as Central America, North Africa and the Middle East. These areas with their high birth rates will continue to drive people north… why do you think all those people from central America are at our southern border?
In spite of all the deniers the smart money would bet that these slow, over a short historical time events ARE indications of climate change with abrupt dramatic events like hurricanes simply illustrating the point. You can deny ‘climate change’, but you can’t deny the accumulated data that indicates this change.
What is the closest answer to the truth?
